Let's say it straight away, without beating about the bush: we did not enjoy ourselves at the Partenio. 90 slow minutes, few bursts, two goals in three minutes midway through the second half and then a stoppage time spent holding our breath.
The point matters, though. The run of 5 wins across league and cup comes to an end, but we still have 10 points from 4 matchdays, second place level with Mantova and a result taken away from a sold-out stadium, on a ground where plenty of teams will struggle in this Serie B. After the game Nesta said that for Avellino it was two points dropped. On the numbers he is right, and it is worth understanding why.
The game Palermo chose to play
Avellino lined up in a 3-5-2, meaning two genuine strikers, Pandolfi and Russo, always close to our two centre-backs. A week ago we wrote that this team's weak spot lies behind the full-backs: when Augello goes forward, nobody is left behind him. Against two strikers that gap becomes a specific risk, the 2 against 2 in the middle, with Bani and Barba on their own and a vertical ball that cuts them both out.
Inzaghi did not want to run that risk. Palermo stayed in a mid block, pressing high only at times when Avellino built from the back, and otherwise waited. Pohjanpalo, for once, went to press the first man on the ball, with the job of pushing the opposition's play out wide, away from those central passes that would have left our defence level in numbers.
The key was at the back. As soon as the ball went wide, Augello and Cassandro had time to shift across and line up with the centre-backs. That way the line was almost never caught level in numbers, it read pressure on the ball and a free ball fairly effectively, and Nesta's two strikers had less space than they had hoped for.
The price
Every blanket has two ends. If the full-backs have to stay tight to the centre-backs, they cannot push on. And the Palermo we know lives on exactly that: the number eight opening it out wide, the winger cutting inside, the full-back overlapping and getting to the byline. At the Partenio that chain was seen much less than usual. When someone went forward anyway it was Augello, almost always on his own, and our build-up tilted too far towards that side until it became predictable.
For a quarter of an hour we kept the ball. Then Avellino settled into their compact 5-3-2, with the central passing lanes screened off, and began to gain ground. Palumbo had to drop deep to link play, Ranocchia moved the ball around in the final third without finding the gap, Pohjanpalo stayed marked and was almost never found in the box. Vavassori, on the left, never found his position, partly because Izzo picked him up straight away and never let him go. Gyasi, on the right, offered more substance covering back than spark going forward.
The numbers tell exactly this story. Palermo finished with 0.53 expected goals, Avellino with 2.06, and the big chances were 4 to 1. Our only shot on target in the first half came after 4 minutes, Vavassori saved by Martinelli. At the other end, in the 37th minute, Pandolfi had already forced Fortin into his first big save, with a header from a free kick whipped in from deep: Fortin flew across and turned it behind for a corner.
Two goals in three minutes
The game came alive when the benches did.
Nesta took off Pandolfi and sent on Cheddira, and in the 60th minute Avellino went ahead. Russo sets off down the right, runs at Bani, beats him and puts in a low ball: Cheddira gets there first and turns it in from two yards. It was the only time the mechanism broke down, and it happened in exactly the way we wanted to avoid, with a centre-back isolated one against one and nobody covering him. Bani suffered all evening against the physicality and technique of Russo and Cheddira, and there he paid for it.
Inzaghi, however, had just changed two pieces. Shortly before the goal Johnsen had come on for Gyasi and Estévez for Segre, and the former was the change that decided the game. Johnsen had started on the bench because of a minor calf problem. In the 63rd minute Avellino lose the ball playing out, Johnsen gives it to Pohjanpalo, gets it back on the one-two and attacks the box: a right-footed shot high, where Martinelli cannot reach it. 1-1.
That goal says a lot about what had been missing in the previous hour. Johnsen brought what Vavassori and Gyasi had not managed: a change of pace, runs in behind, and an Izzo finally forced to run back towards his own goal. Pohjanpalo, isolated for an hour, found the first teammate who came close to him and became decisive with a single lay-off. Estévez, meanwhile, gave the midfield some bulk, especially on high balls.
The half hour that followed
This is where we could have won it. In the 81st minute a four against two counter-attack broke out, which Izzo cleared with a header on the line, and which according to Inzaghi is still crying out for revenge. Shortly after, Palumbo tried his left foot from the edge of the box, wide. Gabrielloni, on for Pohjanpalo, brought energy up front and in the closing stages also had a header of his own.
But we could also have lost it, and heavily. In the closing stages Avellino found the best chances of their evening, and the last ones came in stoppage time with Bani off injured and Palermo down to ten, because the substitutions had already been used. First Cheddira through on goal, then Biasci, twice. The last one a few seconds from the end, from inside the box: a chance worth 0.59 expected goals, more than Palermo produced in the whole match.
Fortin saved them all.
Fortin's hands
4 saves against 1 from Martinelli. Avellino's shots on target were worth 2.49 goals, and one went in. To put it more simply: a game the numbers gave to Avellino was drawn by our goalkeeper.
And it is not just a question of reflexes. Fortin is talked about mostly for how he plays with his feet, for the calm with which he restarts play from the back. On Sunday he showed the other half of the job: courage, reading close-range shots, being there at the exact moment the game was slipping away.
What still isn't working
Bani one against one. When the defence is compact and covered it holds, when he is left alone against a striker running at him he gets into trouble. At the Partenio it happened more than once, and not only for the goal.
Set pieces, in both directions. Our long throws and our corners, which at the start of the season were a weapon, did no damage this time, because Avellino have players who know how to defend those balls. Their set pieces, on the other hand, we read badly more than once with our mixed marking, starting with the free kick in the 37th minute.
And above all the attacking output when the team chooses to sit back. Against a closed block, without the full-backs pushing on, Palermo struggle to find another way into the box. Pohjanpalo stays far from the play, and danger only comes from individual moments by those coming off the bench.
The honest point
Inzaghi said the draw was fair. We think it was generous. 2.06 expected goals against 0.53, 4 big chances against 1, 4 saves by our goalkeeper against 1 by theirs: with numbers like that, on most nights, the home side wins the game. When Nesta talks about two points dropped he is not just cheering for his own team.
The opposite reading deserves space too, though, and it is a serious one. Going to a difficult ground, against an organised and physical side, without Strefezza and without Hernani, choosing not to take risks and coming home unbeaten is what teams that want to stay up there until May do. Inzaghi put it in his own way: this team, when things get tough, always finds the decisive touch.
A week ago we were asking whether at the Barbera we had seen a team capable of changing its skin or just a good night. At the Partenio it really did change its skin: from a team that attacks down the left with everyone to a team that waits and protects its centre-backs. The problem is that, for now, when it covers up it stops creating.
On Saturday at 15:00 Padova come to the Barbera, the last game before the international break. There is only one question: at home, with the full-backs free to push on again, will Palermo rediscover their chain on the left, or will the first concern there too be not leaving Bani and Barba on their own?
T.L.
Want to see how much each team really deserves its place in the table? The Meritometro compares real points and expected points. For those who want the models rather than the headlines, there's the Nerd Zone.