barsport.club

Football Analytics · Advanced Data

Monday, October 19, 2026

Latest Analysis

Mantova and Palermo produced the same expected goals. It finished 0-2, and the reason is two shots

Foto: SonoGrazy · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Analysis

Mantova and Palermo produced the same expected goals. It finished 0-2, and the reason is two shots

October 19, 2026Read article

1.98 against 1.98: at the Martelli the two sides built exactly the same amount of danger. Then Ruocco shot wide from 0.845 in front of an open goal and twenty minutes later Segre scored from 0.866. Take those two away and you are left with 1.13 against 1.11. Inside it is Inzaghi's plan, which seven days after Empoli did the exact opposite.

barsport.club

Mantova and Palermo produced the same expected goals. It finished 0-2, and the reason is two shots

Frattesi posted -21 and he is right. But the number that explains Lazio is a different one

City have won seven out of seven and earned fourteen points. The bottom four have earned twenty-two more than they hold

One hundredth of a goal in forty minutes: what Malen's red card really cost

City win 3-0 at Anfield and the first two goals together were worth a seventh of a goal

The most robbed team in Europe goes to the Bernabéu and shoots for half a goal

Bayern produce 4.58 expected goals, hits the woodwork twice and comes away with a point

Monaco scores two goals that together are worth 0.17 and this time it is not enough

Three teams top on 13 points, but only two have the numbers to back it up

Malen is the most expensive in fantacalcio. For once, the most expensive is not also the most inflated

The three fantasy surprises: one real, one half, one to sell right now

City have 15 points from 15. The model gave them 9.59

Barça have a perfect points total, Villarreal have the wrong one

Dortmund have won all four. The model gave them eight points

Monaco are top with almost double the points they deserved

Eleven corners and two through balls

Robbed and Miracled: The Table Your Manager Will Never Show You

Robbed and blessed: the Premier League table nobody puts on the wall

Fantacalcio, the international break: who is owed and who has already paid

Six out of nine

Thirty shots, zero goals: the open accounts across Europe

Nine, but all in a single match

One entry into the box, one goal, three points

Fantacalcio: the fifth matchday accounts, and a defender nobody watches

One Week Later: Two Out of Five

The same expected goals, three goals of difference

Five expected goals on one side, three shots on the other

The best shot of the match was worth 0.12

Twenty to one, and this time it ended 7-0

The price of waiting

Nine entries into the box in four matches

Five goals and not a single real chance

Fantacalcio, matchday five: the open accounts and the ones we closed

26,726 bets, and no way to profit from them

Twenty shots, two goals, one point

Two goals in six matchdays, and one of them is this one

The two-cent goal

Five goals from one expected goal

Three box entries

The game that turned in two minutes

Nine thousandths

Thirty shots and no real chance

Sixty seconds from twenty metres

The side door

The goalkeeper is the plan

Half an hour against ten men

Three thousand days

Alavés-Osasuna 5-2: one box entry, five goals

Frankfurt-Augsburg 1-4: twenty-six seconds, and the game changed hands

Frosinone-Venezia 3-2: Venezia have created more expected goals than almost all of Serie A, and have zero points

Hamburg-Mainz 0-5: twenty-six hundredths of a goal in ninety minutes, at home

Troyes-Strasbourg 2-6: six goals from 3.52 expected, the biggest single-match gap in Europe

Gladbach-Elversberg 3-4: the first win the numbers actually give Elversberg

Werder-Leipzig 3-1: Leipzig's one goal was worth more than Werder's three combined

Fiorentina-Torino 1-2: Torino created one chance, and scored it

Hoffenheim-Dortmund 2-3: an hour in control, five minutes to lose it

Athletic-Atlético 3-0: seventeen box entries and not one shot worth more than 13%

City-Coventry 1-0: Coventry had two chances bigger than Haaland's goal. And they have not scored in three matchdays

Roma-Atalanta 2-1: thirty-eight shots, twenty box entries to two, and it took the 93rd minute. The bill came due by a whisker

Inter-Napoli 3-2: Inter's press has gone from 12 to 6.9 in three matchdays. Then in the 88th came a ball worth 0.93

Fulham-Palace 2-3: twenty-four box entries to four, and the side with four wins it

Schalke-Bayern 0-0: twenty-two box entries to zero, PPDA 3.4 against 54.6. And it finishes goalless

Genoa-Como 1-4: «the scoreline lies». Fàbregas said it himself, and the numbers agree

Betis-Real Madrid 1-0: three posts, a penalty saved in the 93rd minute and nineteen shots. How to lose a match you won

Lyon-Auxerre 3-1: zero. Auxerre did not complete a single pass inside twenty metres

PSG-Monaco 1-2: the day before, we published three things to watch. We got one right and two wrong

Newcastle-Bournemouth 2-2: coming back from two down on eight hundredths of a chance

Toulouse-Lille 0-1: twenty-four shots, four big chances, no goals. And Lille go top

Ipswich-Liverpool 0-2: Iraola's first win came in his worst Liverpool performance

Stuttgart-Cologne 4-1: four goals from half an expected goal, and Cologne did not score one of their own

Fantasy football, the credit: thirteen shots, no goals, buy him now

The teams the market is about to get wrong: six points that were worth less than two

Palermo-Juve Stabia 1-0: the question this match did not answer

Europe is missing 26 goals. We counted them one by one

Serie A, all ten games: the league that finished worse than anyone in Europe

Premier League, all ten games: Europe's most lopsided 4-0, and a United defeat the numbers refuse to convict

La Liga, all sixteen games: Villarreal created 3.54 goals at Atletico and left with a single point

Ligue 1, all nine games: PSG never got to a shot, and Lens scored five perfect goals

Hull 2-0 Manchester United: the result all Europe is talking about did not happen the way you were told