The verdict, before the numbers
No. Nothing is finished.
But that is not the interesting part. The interesting part is that after ninety minutes of football the verdicts have already been handed down, and at least three of them contradict what actually happened on the pitch.
That is not an opinion. It is what comes out when you stop reading the scoreline and start reading the chances.
What we are measuring (in 30 seconds)
Expected Goals (xG) answer a single question: how likely was that shot to end up in the net?
A shot from two metres into an empty goal is worth around 0.90 xG: nine times out of ten it goes in. A shot from thirty metres is worth 0.03: almost never. Add up all of a team's shots and you get how many goals an ordinary side would have scored from those chances.
Goals tell you how it ended. xG tells you how it was being played. When the two numbers disagree, the second one is usually right, over time.
Case 1, Inter won 4-1. And played an even game.
Inter 4-1 Monza · xG 1.54 - 1.22
Look at the result and you think: total control. Look at the chances and you see a balanced match. Monza built 1.22 xG, only a little less than Inter.
Inter scored 2.46 goals more than their chances suggested. That is the biggest gap of the weekend across the five major leagues. It can mean one of two things: either they have forwards who turn ordinary chances into goals, a genuine quality, but one that still needs confirming, or it was one of those perfect evenings that does not come round every Sunday.
The 4-1 goes in the record books. The performance does not.
Case 2, The smash-and-grab of the weekend
Toulouse 0-2 Lyon · xG 2.16 - 0.76
This is the most unjust result of the European weekend. Toulouse created chances worth 2.16 goals and scored none of them. Lyon created 0.76 and scored twice.
A gap that wide, in a single match, is not a judgement on either side: it is proof that football, over ninety minutes, remains a very low-scoring game in which the incident decides everything. Lyon have three points. Toulouse have a performance that will win them matches if they repeat it.
Case 3, United lost. The data does not convict them.
Hull 2-0 Manchester United · xG 1.50 - 1.78
The headline says: newly promoted side sweeps United aside. The data says something else: United created more than Hull did (1.78 to 1.50) and came away with no goals and no points.
It is the most talked-about result of the weekend and one of the least representative. A caveat: this does not mean everything is fine. Creating 1.78 xG and not scoring is a problem, and if it keeps happening it becomes the problem. But "swept aside" is the wrong phrase.
So who actually dominated?
Two teams, and neither of them made the headlines.
Brentford 3-0 Tottenham · xG 4.04 - 0.76. Four expected goals against nought point seven six. That is what dominance looks like: the 3-0 is if anything less than Brentford deserved.
Lens 5-2 Auxerre · xG 5.12 - 1.71. Five goals scored, five goals expected. No magic, no luck: the most honest scoreline of the round.
The teams that won while playing worse
A list worth keeping to one side, because a table after one matchday lies by definition:
| Match | Score | xG | Who created more | |---|---|---|---| | Hull - Manchester United | 2-0 | 1.50 - 1.78 | Manchester United | | Everton - Crystal Palace | 2-0 | 1.45 - 2.23 | Crystal Palace | | Toulouse - Lyon | 0-2 | 2.16 - 0.76 | Toulouse | | Rayo Vallecano - Alaves | 1-1 | 0.57 - 2.22 | Alaves | | Nice - Lorient | 0-0 | 1.09 - 1.98 | Lorient |
Five matches out of twenty-eight, in a single round, in which the better side did not get what it deserved. That is one game in six.
The honest part
One matchday proves nothing. This analysis does not prove anything either: with four, six or eleven games per league, the noise is enormous, and anyone promising you a definitive truth is selling you something.
What we can say with confidence is more modest, and more useful: today's table is not a picture of who is playing best. In a month's time some of these gaps will have closed on their own. And when they do, those who read only the results will call it a "crisis" or a "surprise". Those who also read the chances knew back in August.
Season over already? Ask again in November.
What about you? Find your team in that list and answer one question: did the opening result reward them, or protect them? The Meritometro shows you match by match who actually deserved what they got, and in the Nerd Zone you can run the numbers yourself for any league.