The verdict, before the numbers
Serie A opened with 24 goals against 33.27 expected: 9.27 goals missing, almost one a game.
It is the worst figure in Europe. Ligue 1 is close behind (-0.84 per match), the Premier League sits at -0.42, La Liga at -0.31. In plain terms: no league wasted as much as ours.
And three matches out of ten finished the opposite way to how they were played.
The three wins the pitch did not award
Atalanta 2-1 Sassuolo · xG 0.92 - 2.70
The most extreme case of the Italian round. Sassuolo built chances worth almost three goals, Atalanta fewer than one. Atalanta won.
It was also the most open game of the weekend: PPDA 18.8 against 21.4, two sides who let each other play. Sassuolo sit bottom on zero points with the best attacking output of the round; Atalanta have three points and a performance to review.
Bologna 0-1 Lazio · xG 2.06 - 0.81
Bologna created two and a half times as much as Lazio and lost at home. Four deep completions each: territorially even, lopsided in terms of danger, in favour of the side that lost.
Venezia 0-2 Lecce · xG 3.19 - 2.45
The worst gap in Europe: -3.19. Eighteen shots, five big chances, no goals, plus two efforts ruled out. Venezia pressed after 5.5 passes against Lecce's 18.8 and lost 0-2. We have given it a piece of its own, because it deserves telling in full.
The 4-1 that was a draw
Inter 4-1 Monza · xG 1.54 - 1.22
The scoreline says thrashing. The chances say parity: Monza built almost as many as Inter did.
The gap between goals scored and expected goals for Inter is +2.46, the highest anywhere in Europe in the opening round. Two readings remain possible, and it is honest to hold both: either Inter have forwards who turn ordinary chances into goals, a real quality, still to be confirmed, or it was simply a perfect evening. Monza, meanwhile, are on zero points after creating more than the 4-1 would suggest.
One tactical detail explains the difference: PPDA 12.0 for Inter against 18.9 for Monza, and 9 deep completions to 1. Inter spent far more time close to goal, without ever creating clearly better chances.
Who deserved everything
Roma 4-0 Fiorentina · xG 3.78 - 0.29
Thirteen times as much. Seventeen shots to nine, eight on target to four, and a press at 8.2 against Fiorentina's 19.1. Fiorentina's 0.29 is the lowest figure of the round: an entire team produced less than a single clear shot is worth.
A Malen hat-trick from three Dybala assists. That one, too, has its own piece.
The other four
| Match | Result | xG | What the numbers say | |---|---|---|---| | Udinese - Como | 1-1 | 2.12 - 2.39 | The most chance-rich game of the round (4.51 xG between them) ended with only two goals. A fair draw, a stingy scoreline. | | Parma - Cagliari | 0-1 | 1.03 - 1.26 | Almost perfectly even, settled by one moment. No surprises in the data. | | Genoa - Napoli | 0-2 | 0.50 - 1.16 | Napoli were ruthless: fewer chances but better ones, and 17 deep completions to 4. A win that adds up. | | Frosinone - Juventus | 0-1 | 0.37 - 2.62 | Juventus dominated (2.62 against 0.37) and took home the bare minimum. Two goals left out on the grass. |
The honest bottom line
With ten matches played, every side has played one: any firm conclusion would be a stretch.
But one finding already holds: the Serie A table is, right now, the least representative in Europe. With almost a goal wasted per match and three wins out of ten handed to the side that created less, the link between points and performances is weaker than in the other three leagues.
That means the coming weeks will bring more "surprises" here than elsewhere, and that many of those surprises will simply be the numbers finding their level.
And your team? The Meritometro has the verdict on every Serie A match, and in the Nerd Zone you can run the numbers yourself.