Monaco are top with almost double the points they deserved

After five matchdays Monaco have 13 points, two more than Lyon and Paris FC: they are the three teams still unbeaten. Then Lille and Rennes on 10, PSG on 8. At the bottom Lens and Troyes on 4, Marseille on 3, Le Havre on 2.

The table and the model agree almost only in the middle. At the top and at the bottom they tell two different championships.

Monaco, the first of the miracle workers

Thirteen points from 6.82 expected makes plus six and eighteen. In Europe only Cagliari have taken more than what they produced, and by five hundredths. Filipe Luís is in his first season and has not lost yet: it is the best start by a Monaco coach this century, level with Ranieri.

The symbolic match is the 2-1 win in Paris on matchday three. PSG shot twenty-three times for 2.52 expected goals, Monaco four times for 0.60, and took away three points. Before the break they beat Lens 2-1, and Zakaria called it his team's worst match: he is the only one in France who has understood what is happening.

The centre-forward Paris Brunner has 4 goals from 2.79 expected, but the debt is not only his: it belongs to the whole team. On Saturday at 20:45 they host Toulouse, who after three matchdays had one point from 5.20 expected.

PSG, sixth with the ball in hand

Luis Enrique's PSG have 8 points: 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat. After four matchdays they had played 47 balls into the box and conceded 14, the clearest territorial dominance in the league, and they were 5 points from 7.00 expected.

The paradox is that even when they won, they won badly. At Brest a goal from 0.023 expected goals decided it: two hundredths, that is once in fifty. Before the break they won 2-1 at Marseille. Marquinhos, who plays centre-back, already has 3 goals.

On Saturday they host Le Mans, newly promoted and ninth. There lies the most interesting case in France: Louis Mafouta, 3 goals from 4.04 expected, a player who shoots a lot, produces a huge amount and is already scoring. His teammate Adil Bourabaa has the same 3 goals, but from 1.16. Same box in the scorers' chart, two opposite futures.

Lyon and Paris FC, the books in order

Fonseca's Lyon have the best defence, 2 goals conceded in five matches, and before the break they beat Rennes 4-0. Against Auxerre they conceded zero entries into the box in ninety minutes. Their centre-forward Loïs Openda has 1 goal from 2.92 expected with 16 shots: the biggest credit in France.

On Friday at 20:45 they go to Lens, who have 4 points and deserved 8.82, almost five left by the roadside. It is the opening match and it is also the one the model looks at with more curiosity than any other.

Rosenior's Paris FC are the honesty prize of the championship: 11 points from 11.14 expected, the smallest gap in Ligue 1. Fourteen hundredths. On Saturday they go to Lorient, and nobody will talk about it.

Marseille and the other disappointments

Genesio's Marseille won 4-0 on matchday one against Strasbourg and then lost four matches in a row. They are seventeenth with 3 points. Gouiri has 4 goals from 2.67 expected, so even the little that arrived arrived above the production, which is the most elegant way of saying it could have gone worse. On Sunday evening they go to Troyes, newly promoted and sixteenth.

Brest are the other robbed team: 5 points from 9.75 expected, and after four matchdays they were the team that had produced the most expected goals in the championship. On Saturday they host Angers.

Matchday six, in order

Friday at 20:45 Lens-Lyon. Saturday at 17:15 Lille-Le Havre, then at 20:45 Brest-Angers, Lorient-Paris FC, Monaco-Toulouse and PSG-Le Mans. Sunday at 15:00 Nice-Strasbourg, at 17:15 Rennes-Auxerre, at 20:45 Troyes-Marseille.

Before anyone writes to us

Monaco and Cagliari are the same case a thousand kilometres apart: teams that take more points than they produce, match after match. Sometimes it is a goalkeeper, sometimes it is a system, almost always it is a run of luck. We will know in November, and we will write it whichever way it goes.

The limit is the usual one: five matchdays, and for some teams we do not have the expected points updated to the break. That is why we say little about Lille and Rennes here.

T.L.

How much each team truly deserves its place in the table is what the Meritometro tells you. For those who want models and not headlines, there is the Nerd Zone.