City-Coventry 1-0: Coventry had two chances bigger than Haaland's goal. And they have not scored in three matchdays

The verdict, before the numbers

At the Etihad, Manchester City beat Coventry 1-0 to stay perfect, three wins from three. It was settled by an Erling Haaland header on the half-hour, his third goal of the season, from a Semenyo cross in a move started by Enzo Fernández.

The scoreline says control. The numbers describe a far more open match than that, and above all they tell a story that is not about the winners.

The two biggest chances belonged to Coventry

Here is the figure that turns the reading of the match around.

Haaland's goal, the one that settled everything, was worth 0.37 expected goals.

In the same match, Coventry got two shots away that were heavier than that:

Jack Rudoni, 23rd minute: 0.44. Saved. Ellis Simms, 79th: 0.49. Saved.

And they had a third, worth 0.29, through Awoniyi in the seventh minute.

Coventry took twelve shots at the Etihad with 22% possession, defending very deep for much of the afternoon, and produced 1.49 expected goals. For a promoted side away at City, that is a successful afternoon. Late on they even had the hosts hanging on.

They did not score.

And City played their least City-like match of the year

At the other end there is a figure worth noticing that nobody will look at, because City won.

Six box entries. Six.

Across the first two matchdays City had made thirty-one in total, more than fifteen per match. Yesterday, six. It is their season low, and by a distance.

They still produced 2.12 expected goals from fourteen shots, with three big chances: Haaland's goal, a second effort of his in the 43rd (0.42, saved) and above all Foden's shot in the 77th, worth 0.63 — the biggest chance of the entire match, blocked.

There was also a Cherki shot against the post and a Haaland goal disallowed in the second half for a Fernández offside in the build-up. The Argentine, signed for £125 million in the final hours of the window, had been named on the bench and was thrown into the starting eleven when O'Reilly was hurt in the warm-up.

In summary: City won a match they deserved to win (expected points 1.88 to 0.88), but they won it without their main instrument, which is taking the ball into the box over and over.

The real story is Coventry

Now the serious part, and it concerns the side that lost.

Three matchdays. No points. No goals.

Not one. In two hundred and seventy minutes of Premier League football, Coventry have not yet put the ball in the opposition net.

And here is the point: they have produced 3.23 expected goals. This is not a side that does not shoot: it is a side that shoots, gets into position, and does not score.

The gap between points taken and points deserved is -3.35, the second worst in the Premier League. In three matches they have created more than three goals and scored none.

Statistically, that does not hold for long. An attack producing a little over one expected goal per match is not a good attack, but zero goals from 3.23 expected is an anomaly bound to correct itself, and the way it will correct is mundane: sooner or later one of those attempts goes in.

Coventry's problem, if anything, is at the other end: twenty-seven box entries conceded in three matchdays against eight made. Yesterday, against City, they conceded only six — their best defensive performance of the season. If that is the direction, the points will come.

The honest bit

City deserved the three points, and it is worth saying clearly before anything else: 2.12 expected goals to 1.49, three big chances to two, and the most dangerous chance of the match was theirs.

But this is not the performance that wins a title. Six box entries against a promoted side is a figure well out of line with what this team did in the first two matchdays. Once, it is an off day with the ball; if it becomes a habit, it is a theme.

And Coventry are not the team of their zero points. Three expected goals and no goals do not describe a side incapable of attacking, they describe a side for whom it has not yet gone in. The difference between the two is worth a season, and it will show within a month.

Check for yourself. In the Meritometro you will find the verdict on every Premier League match based on chances rather than results, and in the Nerd Zone you can go back through Manchester City-Coventry shot by shot, with the value of each attempt.