Toulouse-Lille 0-1: twenty-four shots, four big chances, no goals. And Lille go top

The verdict, before the numbers

At the Stadium in Toulouse it finished 0-1 to Lille, who with this win moved to the top of Ligue 1 while the rest of the round played out.

Anyone who watched the match knows the scoreline tells you nothing here. For anyone who did not, these are the numbers.

Four times in front of goal

Toulouse had twenty-four attempts. They produced 2.97 expected goals. They scored none.

This was not a night of shots from thirty metres: inside those twenty-four there are four attempts from clear positions, and they are worth listing one by one because the tally, laid out like this, is remarkable.

37th minute, Russell-Rowe. A chance worth 0.61 expected goals: six times out of ten that ball goes in. Blocked.

A minute later, Hidalgo, from a corner. 0.53. Saved.

41st minute, Cásseres. 0.35. Wide.

74th minute, Tengstedt. The biggest chance of the match: 0.65 expected goals. Wide.

Four balls that the model says should have become, on average, 2.1 goals. They became none. In between, Lille's goalkeeper did his share, and by full time in France people were talking about him more than about the scorers.

At the other end Lille had nine attempts and produced 1.04 expected goals. They won with a header shortly after the seventieth minute, from a cross out wide.

Toulouse did not lose last night, they have been losing for three weeks

The real point is not this match. It is that this match is the third identical one in a row.

On the opening weekend Toulouse lost 0-2 at home to Lyon producing 2.16 expected goals against 0.76. On the second they drew 2-2 at Brest. Last night they lost 0-1 producing almost three times as much as their opponents.

The three-matchday tally: 6.44 expected goals produced, two goals scored. One point on the table, 5.20 expected points.

A gap of 4.20 points in three matches. In the whole of Europe right now there is only one side worse off, and it is Bologna: no points from 4.69 expected.

That is not a reading, it is arithmetic. Toulouse are playing like an upper-mid-table side and collecting like the bottom one.

And Lille, who are top

Now the opposite face of the same coin, and it is even more extreme.

Lille have seven points. Their expected points are 2.08. A gap of almost five points, the largest in Ligue 1, ahead even of league leaders Monaco.

The number that explains it: in three matches Lille have given up chances worth 6.61 goals and have conceded two. They have allowed thirty-two box entries — the highest figure among the teams at the top of the table — and their goal is still nearly untouched.

It is not a one-off evening: it happened at Angers, it happened against PSG, it happened at Toulouse. Three times out of three, Lille let their opponents play and still won or drew.

Which brings us to the question that decides the season, and which we have no intention of pretending we can settle on three matches: is this a goalkeeper in a state of grace, or a side that concedes plenty of shots but nearly all of them harmless? Expected goals add up the positions shots are taken from; they cannot tell you whether a shot from that position was clean or full of legs in the way.

Our reading, and we give it for what it is — an opinion — is that there is a lot of the first and a little of the second. But that is the classic thing you find out in November, not in September.

The honest bit

Three matchdays are three matchdays. A -4.20 built on three matches is a snapshot, not a sentence. If Toulouse keep creating like this, the goals will come; it is the most elementary mechanic in this business.

But lost points do not come back. This is the part fans understand perfectly and the part people who handle these numbers often forget: nobody is going to hand Toulouse the four points they deserved. In May, what counts is what is on the table.

And being above your own line is not automatically a swindle. Lille are top because they have won three difficult matches. That the model cannot see how is the model's problem before it is Lille's.

And now we keep score

As always, date on it and check afterwards.

If these numbers are worth anything, in a month Toulouse will have climbed and Lille will have come down. If in a month Toulouse are still bottom with the best attacking output in the lower half, then there is something expected goals are not seeing, and it will be worth saying so out loud instead of waiting for the average to prove us right.

Check for yourself. In the Meritometro you will find the verdict on every Ligue 1 match based on chances rather than results, and in the Nerd Zone you can go back through Toulouse-Lille shot by shot, with the value of each attempt.