Hull 2-0 Manchester United: the result all Europe is talking about did not happen the way you were told

The verdict, before the numbers

It is the result all Europe is talking about, and for once the excitement is justified: a newly promoted side no pundit gave a chance beat Manchester United 2-0 on the opening day, in Michael Carrick's first match as permanent manager.

But the explanation you are reading everywhere, "heart, hunger, Hull wanted it more", is only half true. And the missing half is the interesting one.

The numbers nobody put on the front page

Manchester United: 21 shots. Hull: 8. United inside the opposition box (deep completions): 11. Hull: 1. xG: Hull 1.50, United 1.78.

United had almost three times as many shots, got into the box eleven times to one, and built more chances than their opponents. And they left Hull with no goals and no points.

There is the pressing figure too, PPDA, how many passes you let the opposition make before going to disturb them. The lower it is, the more you press. United 10.4. Hull 20.6. United pressed twice as hard. Hull let them play, sat in, waited.

If you had been shown only these numbers, you would have said: match dominated by United, finished 2-0 to United.

The number that turns it all around

Here it is, and there is only one: danger per shot.

Hull's 8 shots are worth 1.50 expected goals. United's 21 are worth 1.78.

That means every Hull effort was worth almost 0.19 goals. Every United shot, 0.085. Hull shot less than half as often, but every time they did they were twice as dangerous.

In detail: Hull produced 3 big chances (efforts with at least a 30% probability of ending up in the net) from 8 shots in total. United produced 2 from 21.

Twenty-one shots, two real chances. That is the statistical definition of sterility: plenty of possession, plenty of pressure, plenty of balls into the box, and almost no effort from a genuinely dangerous position.

Where the two goals came from

This is where the story closes, and it is more instructive than the epic version.

16', Semi Ajayi, from a corner. 0.71 xG. 37', Nobel Mendy, header from a set piece. 0.53 xG.

Together the two goals are worth 1.24 expected goals: on their own they account for more than 80% of all the danger Hull produced in ninety minutes. And both came from a set piece.

Of eight shots in total, Hull took four from set pieces: half their attacking repertoire. That is not an accident, and it is not luck: it is a game plan. Concede the ball, sit in, and try to settle the match in the few moments when you can put every one of your players exactly where you want them.

It worked first time.

Why "United were unlucky" is the wrong reading

There is a temptation, for anyone who works with data, to say: United created more, therefore they were unlucky, therefore it will pass.

It is a lazy reading, and this match explains rather well why.

United did not concede two lucky strikes from outside the box. They conceded the two most dangerous chances of the entire match, both from set pieces, both a header or a corner. This is not a luck problem: it is a problem of how you defend set pieces, and that is one of the few things in football that can be trained and corrected.

At the same time, twenty-one shots for just two big chances is not bad luck either: it is a team that reaches the box but never finds the right position to shoot from.

Two real problems, neither of them solved by the phrase "it will come".

The honest bit

What these numbers actually say, without stretching them.

For Hull: they stole nothing. They built the two best chances of the match and took them. A game plan executed well is merit, not chance. A word of caution, though: 1.50 expected goals from just 8 shots is a model that works when the set pieces go in, and set pieces do not go in every week.

For United: the xG figure says the performance was not a disaster, and anyone crying catastrophe is overdoing it. But it also says the problem will not fix itself. Twenty-one shots and two real chances is a side circling the box without ever properly getting into it.

And there is one last figure worth keeping in mind: across this opening European weekend, ten matches out of forty-five were won by the side that created less. This is one of them. With one difference from the other nine, here, the team that created less did it on purpose.

See the numbers in full. In the Meritometro you will find the verdict on every match of the round, across every league, and in the Nerd Zone you can see shot by shot where Hull and United built their chances. Do you think Hull stay up, or was this just one great first day?