Schalke-Bayern 0-0: twenty-two box entries to zero, PPDA 3.4 against 54.6. And it finishes goalless

The verdict, before the numbers

At the Veltins-Arena, in front of a sold-out 62,094, newly promoted Schalke held Bayern to a 0-0. Bayern lose top spot to Freiburg.

On the pitch it was not a balanced match. It was the most lopsided match of the entire European weekend, and it is not close.

Twenty-two to zero

Let us start with the figure we have never seen this extreme in any other match this season.

Box entries: Bayern 22, Schalke 0.

A box entry, in this statistic, is a completed pass within twenty metres of goal, crosses excluded. It is the ball arriving where it hurts.

Bayern took it there twenty-two times. Schalke never. Not once in ninety minutes.

It is the fourth time in the European season that a side has finished a match on zero, after Rayo Vallecano at Sevilla, Aston Villa at Brighton and Auxerre at Lyon. None of the other three, though, had twenty-two at the other end.

And the press is even starker

If anything, the PPDA figure is more violent still.

Bayern 3.4. Schalke 54.6.

Bayern went to press Schalke after three and a half passes. Schalke let Bayern make nearly fifty-five passes before going to disturb them.

For scale: on the same weekend, the most aggressive press in Serie A was Inter's against Napoli, at 6.9. Bayern were twice as aggressive. And Schalke's 54.6 is the highest we have recorded this season: this is not a side that presses rarely, it is a side that does not press at all, by design, for ninety minutes.

Two different sports played simultaneously. And it finished 0-0.

The number that explains why

Here comes the interesting part, and it is not the one on the scoreboard.

Bayern took fifteen shots and produced 2.05 expected goals. Good numbers, not extraordinary. But the figure that really matters is another one: their most dangerous attempt of the ninety minutes was worth 0.365 expected goals.

Not one above 37%. With twenty-two box entries.

The best chances, in order:

Luis Díaz, 40th minute: 0.37. Played in by Brown, he sent it high over the bar. The biggest of the night. Luis Díaz, 53rd: 0.34. Blocked. Laimer, 63rd: 0.29. Wide. Tah, 54th, from a corner: 0.22. Wide. Upamecano, 87th, from a corner: 0.19. Wide.

Bayern accumulated two expected goals by stacking up a couple of dozen half-possibilities. They never had the ball for the goal.

And in between there is Loris Karius, who made three decisive saves on Brown, Olise and above all Kane. The goalkeeper is the part expected goals cannot measure, and last night he was half the story.

Exactly the same problem Roma had

It is worth putting the two matches side by side, because they are the same thing seen from two angles.

Twenty-four hours earlier at the Olimpico, Roma took thirty-eight shots against Atalanta and their biggest chance was worth 0.371. Last night Bayern took fifteen and their biggest was worth 0.365.

Two sides that spent the match inside the opposition box without ever arriving in front of the goalkeeper in clean conditions.

Roma won in the 93rd by scoring two balls worth 0.14 between them. Bayern scored nothing.

It is the same match. The only difference is where one ball ended up in stoppage time, which is precisely why these numbers have to be read over the distance and not over ninety minutes.

What it means for Bayern

Two things, one obvious and one less so.

The obvious: the run is over. It is Bayern's first competitive match without a goal in over a year, and in the Bundesliga the first since a goalless draw with Leverkusen more than eighteen months ago. Sixty consecutive matches on the scoresheet.

The less obvious: Kompany left Kane and Olise on the bench, bringing them on during the match — Kane at the start of the second half, Olise and Musiala in the 57th. With twenty-two box entries and no chance above 0.37, the question is not whether Bayern created enough volume, but whether they had on the pitch the players who turn that volume into a clean chance.

That is not a verdict, it is the question the numbers leave open.

And Schalke?

Zero box entries, four shots, 0.25 expected goals, one shot on target in the whole match. That is the attacking output of a side that never even tried to attack.

Put like that it sounds like criticism. It is not, and it is the most interesting point in the piece: that was exactly the plan. A promoted side playing at home against the champions, trading volume for zero clear chances, is doing the rational thing — and last night it worked.

The point they take home counts, on the table, as much as any other.

The honest bit

Bayern did not play badly. Twenty-two box entries and a PPDA of 3.4 are the numbers of a side that dominated every metre of the pitch. Anyone reading the 0-0 as a crisis is reading the scoreboard and nothing else.

But there is a problem, and it is one of quality, not quantity. Two expected goals accumulated from twenty half-chances are not the same as two expected goals built from three clean balls. The model adds up; the goalkeeper does not.

And Schalke won their match. Not on the scoreboard: on the plan. They conceded everything except the thing that counts, and took home the point they wanted.

Check for yourself. In the Meritometro you will find the verdict on every Bundesliga match based on chances rather than results, and in the Nerd Zone you can go back through Schalke-Bayern shot by shot, with the value of each attempt.