Frosinone-Venezia 3-2: Venezia have created more expected goals than almost all of Serie A, and have zero points

The verdict, before the numbers

At the Stirpe, Frosinone beat Venezia 3-2.

Antonio Raimondo scored on 21 and 39 minutes, the first a header from an Anthony Oyono cross, the second right-footed from a Patrizio Masini pass. Venezia came back after the break: John Yeboah on 66, Richie Sagrado on 74. On 83 Giorgi Kvernadze restored the lead.

Third defeat in three for Venezia. Third win in two weeks for Frosinone, who had arrived off a 3-0 away at Fiorentina.

The number: 6.15

That is how many expected goals Venezia have created in three Serie A matchdays. We checked all twenty teams: only Roma (11.45) and Inter (9.30) have done better.

Venezia's actual goals: two. Their points: zero.

Saturday was not an isolated case. It was the third time in a row.

• Matchday one, at home to Lecce: 3.19 expected goals to 2.45, and it finished 0-2 to Lecce.
• Matchday two, at San Siro against Milan: not that time — 0.52 to 3.22, a fair defeat.
• Matchday three, at Frosinone: 2.44 to 1.79, and another zero.

Their expected points add up to 3.80. Their real ones to zero. In our merit table that is the third-worst gap in Serie A, behind Bologna and Monza, but it is the only one belonging to a side that actually plays: the others on zero points — Bologna, Fiorentina, Genoa — have not created even 3.50 expected goals all season. Venezia alone have nearly double that.

How the two sides moved

Venezia are the second most aggressive side in Serie A. Their season PPDA is 7.21: only Juventus press harder. At the Stirpe it dropped to 4.63, meaning fewer than five Frosinone passes allowed before a defensive action. It is the most aggressive figure of their season.

That number means something specific, and the tactical sources explain it the same way.

The Italian association of match analysts, in a scouting report on Giovanni Stroppa's Venezia, describes the three centre-backs: their job is to hold a high line, and they "willingly and often accept staying one-against-one on opposition counterattacks". The midfielders "play high, pressing their reference man; they rarely play or defend flat". The build-up starts from the back three, who look for the feet of the dropping midfielder, and the long ball is the last resort.

L'Ultimo Uomo's season guide adds the context: last season Venezia put in fewer crosses than any other side in Serie B, under fifteen a game. This is not a team that throws balls into the box. It is a team that passes its way in.

Massimiliano Alvini's Frosinone do the exact opposite, and they do it on purpose. L'Ultimo Uomo again, in their Frosinone guide: in Serie B they had the second-lowest PPDA and the third-fewest passes played — 302 a game. A side that was "vertical and aggressive, looking to get the ball straight to the players who can make the difference, the wingers". They lost almost no balls in their own half because they did not play there.

Put the two together and the match explains itself. Venezia's high line and accepted one-against-ones, against a team that skips midfield and looks straight for its wide men.

Two of Frosinone's goals confirm the design, and one confirms it to the letter. The Lega Serie A tactical analysis of the promoted clubs, published on 21 August, isolated one thing about Frosinone: the 4-3-3 is "extremely focused on the right-hand axis of the pitch", where full-back Oyono and winger Ghedjemis exchanged the ball more than any other pair on the field — nineteen passes between them in a single match — and where the two produced four crosses each.

Raimondo's first goal comes from an Oyono cross. It is worth 0.26 expected goals: it was not a big chance, it was the house movement.

The second is worth 0.76, Frosinone's most dangerous shot of the whole match. It comes from a Masini pass, vertical. The third, Kvernadze's on 83, is worth 0.36 and in our source has no assist at all: an individual effort.

Three goals. Three shots that together are worth 1.38 of Frosinone's 1.79 total expected goals. Frosinone had twelve shots and scored with their three best: 0.76, 0.36 and 0.26.

Venezia's equaliser is Stroppa's signature. On 74 Sagrado scores from a position worth 0.91: by far the biggest chance of the ninety minutes. The assist is Antoine Hainaut's. Sagrado and Hainaut are the two wing-backs.

The analysts' report writes the role out precisely: in possession the wide men "line up even beyond the midfield line, very wide, creating width", they "often look for overlaps" and they reach the byline "many times"; Sagrado in particular is the one who seeks the one-against-one, Hainaut on the right is more cautious going forward. The 2-2 is exactly that: right wing-back carrying the ball to the byline, left wing-back arriving to finish.

The first goal, Yeboah's on 66 from 0.11, comes from a Gianluca Busio pass. Busio is the captain, the pivot everything runs through: L'Ultimo Uomo calls him the only pillar to have survived three transfer windows.

Where the sources disagree. The analysts' report describes the 3-5-2 Venezia that won Serie B. Lega Serie A, looking at this season's first official outing, write that the side "looked more like a 3-4-2-1 than the 3-5-2", with Simon Sohm as a creator behind the striker and Busio and Kike Pérez pushing into the final third. Who is right matters less than what both are saying: the principles have not changed, the shape has. And on Saturday the two midfielders the analysts describe as "good at arriving late in the box" produced a goal and an assist, while the two centre-forwards bought for €23.5m — Akor Adams and Albion Rrahmani — finished with no goals from 0.45 expected between them.

There is a crack between the sources on Frosinone too. L'Ultimo Uomo certify that in Serie B they were first for touches in the opposition box: 23.59 a game. Lega Serie A, watching the Coppa Italia, flag the opposite: 49% possession conceded, seventeen shots faced, twenty-two fouls, 60% of aerial duels lost.

The Serie A numbers say the second reading won. Frosinone have sixteen box entries made and thirty-three conceded. Thirty-three is the second-worst figure in the league behind Genoa. The team that lived inside the opposition box in Serie B lives inside its own in Serie A.

The season context

Frosinone have six points from 2.54 expected. The gap is +3.46: the second-largest in Serie A after Atalanta's. Six real goals from 4.11 expected.

That is not a conviction. It is a warning, and it is worth being precise about how heavy it is: among teams on at least six points, only Atalanta have a worse difference between box entries made and conceded.

Venezia have zero points from 3.80 expected. They have created more than Juventus, Milan, Napoli and Como. They have conceded 7.46 expected goals, which is a lot — a high line played one-against-one has a price — but not enough to explain seven goals conceded in three games.

The honest bit

Three matchdays are not a season. A +3.46 gap over three games is a statistical anomaly, not a judgement. Some teams have held gaps like that for months; others have given them back in a fortnight. Frosinone defending at thirty-three box entries conceded is a more solid problem than the gap: you can see that one with your eyes, you do not need a model.

Our reading, and we are calling it a reading. Venezia do not look to us like a side missing chances by accident. They look like a side producing medium chances and no huge ones: on Saturday they had a single shot above 0.40 in ninety minutes, and they scored it. Fifteen shots for 2.44 expected goals is 0.16 per shot. Frosinone, with three shots fewer, reached 0.15 per shot. These are teams shooting from the same distance. The difference is that Frosinone put away the three good chances and Venezia one of their two.

This is not a luck problem. It is a problem of how many big chances you can build. If Venezia keep creating 2 expected goals a game, the points will come. If they keep creating them this way — many shots, few real chances — they will come later than the model says.

The minutes are taken from the match reports: Triveneto Goal, TuttoFrosinone and Italpress agree on all five. Our statistical source, as always, has them all a minute earlier.

We keep the running tally of results against performances in the Meritometro. Anyone who wants the raw numbers, without the story around them, will find them in the Nerd Zone.