Thirty shots, zero goals: the open accounts across Europe

Fantasy football is not just Italian: the Premier League, La Liga, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 all have their own leagues, their own prices and the exact same problem. People buy goals already scored, which are the least repeatable thing there is.

The method here is the one we use every week on Serie A. You look at how much a player has produced, meaning the value of the chances he creates, and you compare it with the actual goals. Whoever produces and does not score is in credit, and credit sooner or later gets collected. Whoever scores much more than he produces is in debt, and debt gets paid.

With one premise that applies to everyone: credit only gets collected if the minutes and the volume of shots stay. Without those, it is just an old number.

The most extreme case in Europe: 30 shots, zero goals

Antony has shot 30 times in this La Liga season and has not scored a single goal. His shots are worth 2.67 expected goals: he is not a player shooting from thirty metres out of desperation, he is one who keeps arriving in position and missing.

Thirty shots without a goal, in seven matchdays, is the kind of sequence that always ends the same way. Not because some cosmic law of rebalancing exists, but because a player who produces this much, statistically, cannot keep not scoring: two normal Sundays are enough and the account balances.

On the same list, and with even heavier numbers, there is Ayoze Pérez: 1 goal from 4.26 expected goals, the biggest credit across the five leagues. And then Vinícius Júnior, 1 goal from 3.57 with 22 shots, and Georges Mikautadze, 2 from 3.83.

Premier League

The name to remember is Bukayo Saka: 3 goals from 4.27 expected goals, 15 shots. He is in credit and he plays for Arsenal, who in five matchdays have played 58 balls into the opposition box, the second-best figure in the league. He is the most reliable credit in the whole Premier League.

Below him Thierno Barry, 2 goals from 3.78, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 2 from 3.31: two centre-forwards who shoot a lot and whom the fantasy market has already discarded.

On the opposite side, meaning among those you are about to overpay for: Mathis Cherki has 3 goals from 1.06 expected goals, Pascal Groß 3 from 1.09, Morgan Rogers 3 from 1.44. Three excellent players, with a finishing rate that none of them will be able to sustain.

A separate note for Kevin Schade, 3 goals from 1.65: we had already flagged him after Bournemouth-Brentford, when he scored two in a match with 0.79 expected goals for the team. He keeps scoring, and he keeps doing it above his output.

La Liga

It is the league with the widest gaps, in both directions.

In debt: Sergio Camello has 7 goals from 2.83 expected goals, meaning almost two and a half goals on loan. Álex Baena has 4 goals from 1.31, Lucas Boyé 4 from 1.69, Yassir Zabiri 6 from 3.27. These are the four names costing Spanish fantasy managers the most right now, and they are also the ones with the worst expected return.

A different case is Raphinha, 12 goals from 8.54 expected: he is scoring more than expected, but he produces so much that even returning to the average he remains the most profitable player in the league. That is the difference between a debt and a superstar.

In credit, besides Antony and Ayoze Pérez, there is Antonio Martínez, zero goals from 2.07, who plays for the Alavés we have written about twice: a team that scores what it creates and that has eleven goals in seven matchdays.

Bundesliga

Less extreme, but the picture is clear. Luis Díaz has 1 goal from 2.73 expected goals and plays for Bayern, who have played 78 balls into the opposition box in four matches: he is the credit with the best context in Europe. Behind him Maximilian Beier, 1 goal from 2.42.

In debt Michael Olise, 4 goals from 2.24: he scored three of them all together against Union Berlin, and two of those three were worth less than five hundredths each. Igor Matanovic has 3 goals from 1.45, Niclas Füllkrug 3 from 1.54.

Ligue 1

Loïs Openda has 1 goal from 2.92 expected goals with 16 shots: he is the biggest credit in France, and he comes from a player fantasy managers bought dearly in August.

Then Esteban Lepaul, 2 goals from 3.10, and Louis Mafouta, 3 from 4.04: the latter is the most interesting case, because he shoots a lot and produces a huge amount, and he is already scoring.

In debt Adil Bourabaa, 3 goals from 1.16, Amine Gouiri, 4 from 2.67, and Paris Brunner, 4 from 2.79, who is the centre-forward of league leaders Monaco: keep in mind that Monaco have 13 points from 6.82 expected, so the debt is not just his, it is the whole team's.

How to use this list

It is not a list of who will score after the break. It is a list of wrong prices.

A player in credit costs little because the market looks at goals, and goals are the noisiest part of football. A player in debt costs a lot for the exact same reason. What you buy, when you buy a credit, is not the certainty of a goal: it is the probability, paid below its value.

We repeat the caveat every time because it is what makes people lose money when they misuse these numbers: five or seven matchdays, for a forward, are fifteen or twenty shots. A trend is visible, a certainty is not. And if in the meantime a player loses his place or gets injured, the credit never gets collected.

We return on 10 October, with the Premier League, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 on Saturday, La Liga and Serie A on Sunday.

T.L.

Do you want to see how much each team truly deserves its league position? The Meritometro compares actual points and expected points. For those who want models and not headlines, there is the Nerd Zone.