City have 15 points from 15. The model gave them 9.59

City lead with 15 points, three more than Arsenal. Then Brighton on 10 with the best attack in the league, 16 goals, and four teams on 9: Brentford, Leeds, Liverpool and Everton. At the bottom Coventry on 3, Fulham and Tottenham on 2.

At the top, though, the expected points table tells another story. City have 15 points from 9.59: plus five point four one, the widest surplus in the Premier League. They are not a lucky team to be thrown away, of course not. But so far they have converted their chances better than anyone can keep repeating.

The example is matchday three. Against Coventry, Haaland's goal was worth 0.37, and Rudoni and Simms had both had bigger chances than his, at 0.44 and 0.49. It finished 1-0 to City. On matchday five they beat Sunderland 5-3, conceding three at home to Brian Brobbey.

Haaland is top scorer with 5 goals, but the name to keep an eye on is Cherki: 3 goals from 1.06 expected, one of the biggest debts in the league.

Liverpool-City, Sunday

Iraola's Liverpool have not lost yet, 2 wins and 3 draws, but they won their worst matches. At Ipswich, Isak's two goals were worth 0.12 and 0.13: the new manager's first win came in his team's ugliest performance. Isak has 4 goals, three of them assisted by Gakpo.

Both come into Sunday with a question mark, Isak with a thigh problem and Gakpo with a knock to the ankle. City sent Semenyo back home from Ghana as a precaution. Last season City won all three head to heads, the last one 4-0 in the FA Cup with a Haaland hat-trick.

A curiosity for those who love the numbers: the Bournemouth that Iraola left in the summer have not won yet. They have 3 points and deserved 7.76.

Arsenal and Brighton

Arsenal have 12 points and arrive off a 3-0 at Brighton. They are the team in the Premier League that carries the most balls into the box, 58 in five matches, two more than United, and their most reliable credit is Saka: 3 goals from 4.27 expected, with 15 shots. After the break they host Leeds, fifth with only 3 goals conceded.

Brighton have scored more than anyone, but their bonus man is scoring above his means: Groß has 3 goals from 1.09 expected. They go to Sunderland.

The most robbed team in England

Tottenham are bottom with 2 points, from 5.45 expected. Two goals scored against 5.82 produced, the worst gap in the Premier League, and 445 minutes without ever scoring before they finally broke through against Aston Villa. They lost that one too, 2-3, with the same expected goals for both teams, 1.72 against 1.71: Villa's three goals were together worth 0.84.

The odds make De Zerbi favourite for the first sacking of the season. Tottenham are the team that more than any other in Europe needs the numbers to fall back into place, and on Saturday they go to Old Trafford to face a United side sitting twelfth, with Carrick second on that same list. Between the two, one goes.

The newly promoted

Hull are eighth with 8 points and beat United 2-0 on the opening matchday. Ipswich are eleventh with 6. Lampard's Coventry are eighteenth with 3 points and a single goal in five matches: in the first three they had produced 3.23 expected goals without scoring any. The one that arrived was worth the first win, 1-0 at Forest. On Monday they host Newcastle.

Matchday six, in order

Saturday: Arsenal-Leeds, Aston Villa-Brentford, Chelsea-Bournemouth, Ipswich-Fulham, Sunderland-Brighton and Manchester United-Tottenham. Sunday: Crystal Palace-Nottingham Forest, Hull-Everton and Liverpool-Manchester City. Monday closes with Coventry-Newcastle. We are not listing the kick-off times because the sources we have do not agree, and we would rather say so than make them up.

Before anyone writes to us

Five matchdays in the Premier League are fifteen or twenty shots for a striker: enough to see a trend, not enough to be right. City's lead is real, but more fragile than the three-point gap suggests, and the model gave them fewer than ten.

For the expected points of the mid-table teams we do not have data updated to the break, and that is why here we only talk about the teams that do.

T.L.

How much each team truly deserves its league position is what the Meritometro tells you. For those who want the models and not the headlines, there is the Nerd Zone.