The three fantasy surprises: one real, one half, one to sell right now

Surprise, in fantasy football, means one precise thing: a player nobody was fighting over in August who now delivers like one who cost ten times as much. We picked three under 30 credits, with the highest fantasy averages, and for each one we did the usual maths. Goals scored against chances created.

Put together they cost roughly half of Malen and have scored ten goals, four more than him. Which is lovely, and for two of them it is also the reason to read all the way to the end.

The real one: Gustavo Varela

A new signing for Monza, price 15, bought by 9.1% of teams. Four goals in four appearances and a fantasy average of 9.50: among forwards only Malen has done better. On matchday five he decided Monza-Sassuolo with a brace, one header and one penalty, and brought home the first win of the season.

The maths says 4 goals from 2.62 expected goals, with 11 shots. He is above his production, but he shoots enough to stay close to it: almost three attempts per game is the volume of a real centre-forward, and for a centre-forward who shoots like that it takes very little luck to keep scoring.

And then there is the team, which is the part nobody looks at. Monza have 4 points and deserved 8.68: they are one of the most robbed sides in Italy. When they stop losing the games they play well, the first to benefit will be the one who shoots the most. On Sunday they go to Lazio, who have 13 points from 8.00 expected: one of the most miraculous against one of the most robbed, at three in the afternoon, with nobody putting it on the front page.

The half one: Vasilije Adžić

A Sassuolo midfielder, owned by Juventus, price 16. He is the most bought player in his team, in 12.5% of squads. Three goals and one assist in five appearances, fantasy average 8.70. He decided Sassuolo-Juventus at the death, against the club that sent him out on loan, and he scored from a free kick in the 88th minute at Monza.

The maths says 3 goals from 1.92 expected goals. One more than what he produces, and for a midfielder almost two expected goals in five matchdays is a lot: this is not a flash in the pan.

But look at where the bonuses come from. The goal against Juventus came in a game where the five total goals were worth 0.87 expected goals combined. The one at Monza is a free kick, which is the least repeatable shot there is. Keep him. Do not pay for him like a player who scores three goals every five games.

To sell: Diego Moreira

A Milan wide player, price 25, bought by 5.6% of teams. Three goals in three appearances, fantasy average 9.50, the last one at Lecce before the break.

The maths says 3 goals from 0.87 expected goals, with five shots in the whole league season. Three out of five went in. One hundred and twenty-seven minutes played, a goal every forty-two. It is the biggest gap in Serie A and it is the kind of return that never repeats, in any league, in any century.

There is only one way a debt like that turns into a good deal, and it is minutes. Saelemaekers needs ankle surgery and is back between February and March: a place opens up on the Milan flank. If Moreira becomes a starter he will shoot more, and whoever shoots more can afford to score worse. But that is a bet on minutes, not on goals.

If someone in your league asks for him at a starter's price, the moment is now. The price is made by the three goals, the value by the five shots.

On Sunday at 18:00 there is Sassuolo-Milan: two of the three surprises in the same match, and one of the two you are looking at for the last time at that price.

And Raimondo?

He would have been the fourth name, and maybe the most solid of all: 4 goals from 3.01 expected goals, fantasy average 8.80 with Frosinone. He left the Under 21s with a tendinopathy in his right achilles, he misses Napoli-Frosinone and is out for at least two weeks. A return only pays off if you play, and for now the minutes are not there.

Before anyone writes to us

The fantasy averages are from FantaMaster. The expected goals for Varela and Moreira come from our archive, the one for Adžić from another model, which for the other two gives 2.12 and 0.83: the direction is the same, the decimals are not.

The choice of the three is ours, and with the same filter Edon Zhegrova also qualified, 9.00 fantasy average but 2 goals from 0.53 expected, who is another Moreira, and just below him Kaiki of Como, 8.00 as a defender.

And the usual limit: five matchdays, for a forward, are ten or fifteen shots. You can see a trend, not a certainty. Which will not stop you selling Moreira, we hope.

T.L.

How much each team really deserves its league position is what the Meritometro tells you. For those who want the models and not the headlines, there is the Nerd Zone.