Dortmund have won all four. The model gave them eight points

The break has arrived after only four matchdays, which is the smallest sample in Europe: here a penalty or a sending off shifts the table more than any idea of play. But the numbers already say something.

At the top, Dortmund on full points, 9 goals scored and 2 conceded. Then Bayern and Freiburg on 10, and a group of five teams on 7: Augsburg, Leverkusen, Mainz, Elversberg and Werder. At the bottom, Hamburg on 3, Union on 1 and Gladbach on zero.

Dortmund, everything won and little deserved

Twelve points from 8.10 expected: almost four above the model in four matches, one per matchday. The textbook case is Hoffenheim-Dortmund 3-2, a match Hoffenheim controlled for an hour. Dortmund entered the box once, against thirteen for the hosts, and won it in five minutes.

On Friday at 20:30 they host Werder, eighth on 7 points. The centre-forward is Niclas Füllkrug, 3 goals from 1.54 expected: another one who right now is scoring above his means.

Bayern, the dominance that does not always score

Bayern have 10 points from 10.96 expected, practically level. They have scored 14 goals from 13.32 produced and conceded 2 from 3.00 allowed. In four matches they carried 78 balls into the opposition box and allowed 10: nobody in Europe dominates like this, match by match.

The paradox is the 0-0 at Schalke. Twenty-two box entries against zero, a pressing rate of 3.4 against 54.6, and no goal. That is where a run of 60 consecutive matches scoring came to an end. Two weeks later Bayern put seven past Union, because football sometimes apologises.

For fantasy football, keep an eye on the two wingers. Olise has 4 goals from 2.24 expected, three of them against Union, and two of those three were worth less than five hundredths each. Luis Díaz has 1 goal from 2.73 expected, and he is the best credit in context in Europe: he plays in the team that enters the box more than anyone. Kane, for once, is stuck on 3.

On Saturday at 15:30 Bayern go to Augsburg, fourth on 7 points. Augsburg won 4-1 at Frankfurt and drew 2-2 with Leverkusen shooting 8 times against 30.

Freiburg and Leverkusen, opposite directions

Freiburg are third with 12 goals scored and 3 conceded, but after three matchdays they had 9 points from 6.85 expected: they too have taken out a bit of credit on loan. Suzuki has 4 goals, three of them on the opening matchday. On Sunday at 17:30 they host Schalke.

Leverkusen under the new coach Carles Martínez have 7 points from 9.64. They lost on their debut at Elversberg conceding two goals in the 7th and 8th minutes that together were worth 0.13, and at Augsburg they shot thirty times without a single chance worth more than 13%. On Saturday they go to Mainz, sixth against fifth.

Who surprises and who sinks

Elversberg, newly promoted, are seventh on 7 points: they beat Leverkusen on the opening day, won 4-3 at Gladbach and lost only to Bayern. After two matchdays they were the team furthest above the model in the league. On Saturday they go to Berlin.

Union have the worst defence, 17 goals conceded from 12.86 allowed and 55 box entries given up to opponents: there, for once, the model and the table are in perfect agreement. Gladbach have zero points and 16 goals conceded, and on Sunday they play the derby at Cologne. Hamburg have scored 2 goals in four matches.

Matchday five, in order

Friday at 20:30 Dortmund-Werder. Saturday at 15:30 Augsburg-Bayern, Mainz-Leverkusen, Hoffenheim-Hamburg, Union Berlin-Elversberg and Paderborn-Stuttgart, then at 18:30 Leipzig-Frankfurt. Sunday at 15:30 Cologne-Gladbach and at 17:30 Freiburg-Schalke.

Before anyone writes to us

Four matchdays are the smallest sample in Europe: here every gap is worth half of what it would be worth in La Liga.

And there is one case where the models disagree with each other. For Hoffenheim-Dortmund our figure says 2.17 expected goals against 2.02, the official league one said 1.06 against 1.14 five minutes from the end. The measurement changes, not the conclusion: Dortmund won a match they did not dominate.

T.L.

How much each team truly deserves its position is what the Meritometro tells you. For those who want the models and not the headlines, there is the Nerd Zone.