The verdict, before the numbers
Nine matches, 20 goals against 27.56 expected: 7.56 goals missing, or 0.84 a game. It is the second worst finishing rate in Europe, just behind Serie A.
But that is not the number that stands out most. The striking thing is that the reigning champions opened the season creating next to nothing.
PSG open with 0.63 expected goals at home
Paris Saint-Germain 0-0 Rennes · xG 0.63 - 0.91
Goalless at the Parc des Princes, and, the detail that matters more than the result, PSG built fewer chances than Rennes: 0.63 against 0.91.
To see how unusual that is: 0.63 is the lowest figure produced by a home side across all four European leagues. Nobody playing in front of their own crowd created less.
The pressing numbers read PPDA 12.6 against 11.6, almost identical. This was not a game shut down by visitors camped on their own line: it was a game in which PSG simply never got to the shot.
One point in the table, and a signal worth watching.
The most honest scoreline in Europe
Lens 5-2 Auxerre · xG 5.12 - 1.71
Five goals scored, 5.12 expected. The gap is twelve hundredths: essentially nothing.
It is the scoreline that matched the performance most closely anywhere in Europe in the opening round. No magic, no lucky night, no goalkeeper having a nightmare: Lens created five goals and scored five. On a weekend when Europe threw away twenty-six, that is close to a rarity.
It is also the highest attacking output on the continent: nobody else got past five expected goals.
The robbery of the round
Toulouse 0-2 Lyon · xG 2.16 - 0.76
Toulouse created chances worth more than two goals and scored none. Lyon created seventy-six hundredths' worth and scored two.
A gap of -2.16: the second worst in Europe behind Venezia. Lyon have three points; Toulouse have a performance that, repeated, will win them matches.
And Nice dominated a 0-0 the wrong way round
Nice 0-0 Lorient · xG 1.09 - 1.98
Here the paradox is a double one: it finished goalless, but the side that created more was the away team, by almost two to one (1.98 against 1.09). Lorient pressed at a PPDA of 18.4, very passive, and still got to the shot better than Nice did.
A point each which, on the chances, is hard on the visitors.
The other five
| Match | Result | xG | What the numbers say | |---|---|---|---| | Marseille - Strasbourg | 4-0 | 2.35 - 0.19 | A clear and deserved win. Strasbourg produced nineteen hundredths of a goal in ninety minutes. | | Le Mans - Brest | 2-2 | 0.77 - 2.63 | Brest created more than three times as much and did not win. Newly promoted Le Mans take home a precious point. | | Troyes - Paris FC | 0-0 | 0.34 - 1.55 | Troyes pressed at 20.3 (which is to say barely at all) and created a third of a goal. A point rescued. | | Angers - Lille | 0-2 | 1.86 - 1.21 | Angers created more and lost 0-2. Lille were more clinical, not more dangerous. | | Le Havre - Monaco | 0-1 | 0.66 - 1.66 | A win that adds up for Monaco: two and a half times their opponents' chances. |
The honest bottom line
Of nine matches, three went the way of the side that had created less (Lyon, Lille and, through the draw, Le Mans, who rescued a point despite being dominated). It is the highest proportion in Europe alongside Serie A.
Two things to carry into the coming weeks:
PSG. A goalless draw at home happens to everyone. Creating less than Rennes with 0.63 expected goals is another matter. It is not an alarm after one match, but it is the number to check next weekend.
Lens. Five expected goals do not happen by accident. It is the most impressive performance of the European weekend, and unlike the others it has nothing to give back to the statistics: it has already taken everything it created.
See the numbers in full. The Meritometro has the verdict on every Ligue 1 match, and in the Nerd Zone you can compare teams on any statistic.